Introduction to fiscal policy

 


1. Introduction

Fiscal policy is one of the most important tools available to governments for managing the economy. It refers to the deliberate use of government spending and taxation to influence the level of economic activity, achieve macroeconomic objectives, and promote overall national welfare. The concept is rooted in Keynesian economic theory, which emphasizes the role of government intervention, especially during times of economic downturn or excessive inflation.

In modern economies, fiscal policy is used alongside monetary policy (managed by the central bank) to steer economic growth, stabilize prices, reduce unemployment, and ensure a sustainable balance of payments. However, while monetary policy works through interest rates and money supply, fiscal policy directly affects aggregate demand through public expenditure and tax changes.

 

2. Definition of Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy can be defined as the use of government revenue collection (taxation) and expenditure to influence a country’s economic performance.”

It involves decisions about:

  • · Government expenditure: Spending on infrastructure, public services, defense, education, health, and welfare
  • ·  Government revenue: Primarily taxation but also including fees, tariffs, and income from       state-owned enterprises

 

3. Objectives of Fiscal Policy

Governments design fiscal policies to achieve a range of economic and social objectives, including:

·    Economic Growth

Stimulating economic activity through investment in infrastructure, technology, and human capital

·    Price stability

Pr  Preventing high inflation or deflation by adjusting spending and taxation to manage demand

· 

E   Employment Generation

Creating jobs through public works and incentives to private enterprises

·    Redistribution of Income

Reducing inequality through progressive taxation and welfare programs

·    Correction of Balance of Payments Deficits

Influencing imports and exports through taxes, subsidies, or public investment

·    Sustainable Public Debt Management

Ensuring that government borrowing does not exceed the economy’s capacity to repay.

 

4. Types of Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy can be categorized in several ways depending on its stance, timing, and approach.

4.1 Based on Economic Conditions

Expansionary Fiscal Policy: 

Expansionary fiscal policy will be implemented during recessions or periods of low growth. It involves increasing government spending, reducing taxes, or both, to boost aggregate demand.

Contractionary Fiscal Policy:

Contractionary fiscal policy will be used to reduce excessive demand and inflationary pressures. It may involve reducing government spending or increasing taxes.

4.2 Based on Nature of Changes

Discretionary Fiscal Policy:

Deliberate changes in government spending and taxation aimed at influencing economic activity can be considered as discretionary fiscal policy. Examples include stimulus packages or tax reforms.

Automatic Stabilizers:

Automatic stabilizers are the built-in mechanisms that work without deliberate government action. Examples are progressive income taxes (which reduce tax burdens automatically during downturns) and unemployment benefits (which increase spending power when jobs are lost).

 

5. Instruments of Fiscal Policy

The two primary instruments are:

5.1 Government Expenditure

Government spending can be recurrent expenditure (e.g., wages, subsidies, welfare benefits) or capital expenditure (e.g., infrastructure, research & development). Increasing expenditure injects money into the economy, boosting demand and employment.

5.2 Government Revenue

Taxation is the primary source of government revenue. Types of taxes include:

Direct Taxes: Levied directly on individuals and organizations (e.g., income tax, corporate tax).

Indirect Taxes: Levied on goods and services (e.g., VAT, customs duties).

 

By adjusting tax rates or introducing new taxes, governments can influence disposable income, consumption, and investment.

 

6. Theoretical Basis of Fiscal Policy

6.1 Keynesian Perspective

John Maynard Keynes argued that during recessions, private sector demand is insufficient to maintain full employment. The government must intervene by increasing spending or reducing taxes to stimulate demand.

6.2 Classical Perspective

Classical economists generally prefer minimal government intervention, emphasizing that markets self-correct over time. They caution against fiscal deficits and inflationary effects of excessive spending.

6.3 Supply-Side Economics

This school of thought emphasizes that fiscal policy should focus on creating incentives for production and investment—through lower taxes, deregulation, and infrastructure improvements—to increase long-term economic growth.

 

7. Fiscal Multipliers

The fiscal multiplier measures the impact of a change in government spending or taxation on total economic output (GDP). For example, if the multiplier is 1.5, a $1 billion increase in spending will increase GDP by $1.5 billion. Multipliers tend to be higher during recessions and lower when the economy is near full capacity.

 

8. Budget Deficits, Surpluses, and Public Debt

8.1 Budget Deficit occurs when government expenditure exceeds revenue in a given fiscal year. It can be financed through borrowing (domestic or external) or drawing on reserves.

 

8.2 Budget Surplus occurs when revenue exceeds expenditure. While it can reduce public debt, persistent surpluses might indicate underinvestment in public goods.

 

8.3 Public Debt is the cumulative total of past deficits minus surpluses. Excessive public debt can burden future generations through interest payments and reduced fiscal flexibility.

 

9. Fiscal Policy in Different Economic Situations

9.1 During Recession

 Expansionary fiscal policy is used to stimulate demand. It increases government spending on infrastructure and services.

Tax cuts causes to encourage consumption and investment.

 

9.2 During Inflation

 Contractionary fiscal policy is applied. It reduces government expenditure. Increased taxes cause to reduce disposable income and curb demand.

 

10. Challenges in Implementing Fiscal Policy

10.1 Time Lags

Fiscal policy takes time to design, approve, and implement. By the time measures take effect, economic conditions may have changed.

10.2 Political Constraints

Fiscal decisions often involve political trade-offs, which can delay or dilute necessary measures.

10.3 Crowding Out Effect

Excessive government borrowing can raise interest rates, discouraging private investment.

10.4 Inflationary Pressures

Large-scale spending in an economy already near full capacity can lead to inflation.

 

10.5 Debt Sustainability

Persistent deficits can lead to high public debt, reducing future fiscal space.

 

11. Fiscal Policy and Economic Stabilization

Fiscal policy contributes to economic stabilization by:

·     Smoothing the Business Cycle: Counteracting booms and busts

·     Reducing Volatility: Stabilizing income, prices, and employment

·     Ensuring Predictability: Providing a stable economic environment that encourages private investment

 

12. Fiscal Rules and Responsibility

To ensure discipline, many countries adopt fiscal rules such as

·     Balanced Budget Rules: Limiting deficits.

·     Debt Brakes: Capping public debt-to-GDP ratios.

·     Expenditure Ceilings: Controlling growth in public spending.

These rules aim to prevent excessive deficits while allowing flexibility during economic downturns.

 

13. Coordination with Monetary Policy

For maximum effectiveness, fiscal policy must be coordinated with monetary policy:

During a recession, expansionary fiscal policy works best if monetary policy is also accommodative.

During inflation, contractionary fiscal measures are more effective if the central bank also tightens monetary policy.

Poor coordination can lead to conflicting signals—such as government spending increases coinciding with central bank interest rate hikes.

 

14. Environmental and Social Dimensions

Modern fiscal policy also integrates environmental and social considerations:

Green Fiscal Policy: Using taxes, subsidies, and spending to promote sustainable practices (e.g., carbon taxes, renewable energy subsidies).

Social Inclusion: Targeting spending towards marginalized groups to promote equity.

 

15. Conclusion

Fiscal policy remains an indispensable tool for economic management. By influencing demand, investment, and income distribution, it plays a central role in achieving macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. However, it is not without challenges—timing issues, political pressures, and debt constraints can limit its effectiveness.

The key to successful fiscal policy lies in balance:

·       Using it decisively when needed (e.g., during crises)

·       Maintaining fiscal discipline over the long term

·       Aligning short-term stabilization goals with long-term development objectives

When well-designed and coordinated with other economic policies, fiscal policy can drive sustainable growth, reduce inequality, and enhance resilience in the face of economic shocks.


Share:

Projections for Tourism Growth in Sri Lanka (2025-2030)

 Publication details: Deveconomics - Analytical Report 4/2025, 01st September 2025

Title: Projections for Tourism Growth in Sri Lanka (2025-2030)


Key highlights

Economic Importance – Tourism is a critical sector for Sri Lanka, contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings, job creation, and economic development.

 Pre-Crisis Growth – From 2014 to 2018, tourist arrivals grew at a 13.2% cumulative average growth rate, peaking at 2.3 million in 2018.

 Crisis Impact – Due to internal and external shocks, arrivals plummeted dramatically to 0.1 million in 2021.

 Recovery Phase – The sector began recovering in 2022, with 2 million arrivals in 2024, including a near doubling of arrivals between 2022 and 2023 and a 38% increase from 2023–2024.

 Future Outlook – Projections suggest 2.35 million arrivals and USD 3.8 billion earnings in 2025, with the potential to reach 4.1 million arrivals and USD 10.9 billion earnings by 2030 through clear policies and strategic actions.


1.  Introduction

The tourism industry is one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings and plays a significant role in Sri Lanka’s economic development. It is also a key contributor to employment generation in the country. By the end of 2024, tourist arrivals surpassed 2 million. As of July 2025, the number of tourist arrivals reached approximately 1.4 million, accounting for 70% of the total arrivals recorded in 2024. According to the Annual Statistical Report 2023 by the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority, total employment in the tourism sector at the end of 2023 stood at 204,591. Furthermore, as per the Annual Statistical Report 2024, there were 4,346 registered establishments and 54,226 hotel rooms by the end of 2024.


2. Trend in tourist arrivals (2014-2024)

Over the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, three distinct patterns in tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka can be observed:

1.     A period of growth leading up to 2019,

2.     A sharp decline from 2019 to 2021, and

3.     A phase of recovery beginning in 2022.


Following Table 1 presents a comparison of key tourism sector indicators between the years 2018 and 2024.



2.1.  A period of growth leading up to 2019

From 2014 to 20118 period, tourism industry of Sri Lanka showed a 13.2 % cumulative average growth rate with 17.8% in 2015, 14.0% in 2016, 3.2% in 2017 and 10.3% in 2018. Following table 2 compares the key parameters of tourism industry between 2014 and 2018.



2.1.  Degenerating from 2019 to 2021

Sri Lanka's tourism industry experienced a continuous decline from 2019 to 2021, driven by a series of internal and external shocks. The downturn began with the Easter Sunday bombings in Colombo in April 2019, followed by ongoing political instability throughout 2019 and 2020, and was totally collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. As a result, tourist arrivals fell sharply from 2,333,796 in 2018 to just 194,495 in 2021. Correspondingly, foreign exchange earnings from tourism dropped from USD 4.4 billion to USD 0.5 billion. Notably, during this period, tourist arrivals declined at a compound annual rate of -31% between 2018 and 2021.

 

2.2.    A phase of recovery beginning in 2022

Despite facing political instability in 2022, the country’s tourism sector began to revive in line with the gradual global recovery of tourism in the post-pandemic period. Tourist arrivals rose sharply from 194,495 in 2021 to 2,053,465 in 2024, while foreign exchange earnings increased from USD 0.5 billion to USD 3.2 billion over the same period. Notably, between 2023 and 2024, tourist arrivals grew by 38%, underscoring the rapid recovery of the industry. Following chart 1 further elaborate the change of tourist arrivals from 2014 to 2024.


2.      Growth projections



3.1 Growth prediction for 2025

Between 2014 and 2018, Sri Lanka’s tourism industry recorded a cumulative average growth rate of 13.2%. The highest number of tourist arrivals during this period was in 2018, with a monthly average of 194,483 visitors. More recently, from 2023 to 2024, tourist arrivals grew by 38%, bringing the monthly average for 2024 to 171,122. By the end of July 2025, total arrivals had reached 1,368,288, raising the monthly average to 195,470. This figure surpasses the monthly average recorded in 2018, which marked the peak of the decade since 2015. Compared with 2024, the monthly average in 2025 reflects a growth of 14.23%.

Taking into account seasonal patterns, the expansion of the global tourism industry, and favorable market expectations, tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka are projected to grow by 14.5% in 2025, reaching approximately 2.35 million visitors. Assuming a 5% increase in average daily spending per tourist (to USD 190.2) and the continuation of the 2024 average stay of 8.42 nights, foreign exchange earnings from tourism are expected to rise to USD 3.8 billion in 2025.

 

3.2 Growth projections for 2030

As highlighted earlier, between 2014 and 2018, tourist arrivals recorded a cumulative average growth rate of 13.2%, while the average duration of stay reached 10.8 nights in 2018. If deliberate measures are taken to raise the average duration of stay back to the 2018 level, it would significantly enhance foreign exchange earnings. In addition, efforts may be required to increase average spending per tourist per day by expanding and diversifying tourism activities within the country. Assuming an annual 5% increase in daily spending per tourist, key assumptions for the period 2026 to 2030 are presented in the following table.



2.  Conclusion

The tourism sector plays a vital role in Sri Lanka’s economy, particularly in terms of foreign exchange earnings, employment generation, and overall economic development. Between 2014 and 2018, tourist arrivals recorded a cumulative average growth rate of 13.2%. However, due to a series of internal and external shocks, arrivals fell sharply from 2.3 million in 2018 to just 0.1 million in 2021. The sector began to recover in 2022, with annual arrivals rebounding to 2 million by 2024. Notably, arrivals nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, followed by a further 38% increase from 2023 to 2024.

According to this study, tourist arrivals are likely to reach 2.35 million in 2025, generating an estimated USD 3.8 billion in foreign exchange earnings. Looking ahead, with well-defined policies, strategic actions, and clear targets, Sri Lanka has the potential to attract 4.1 million visitors and generate USD 10.9 billion in foreign exchange earnings by 2030.

                                                                                                                                          (End)






Share:

Introduction to Economic Growth

 Economic growth is a vital component of national development, driving improvements in living standards, employment, and public services. However, it is not an end in itself. The ultimate goal should be sustainable, inclusive, and equitable growth—where the benefits are broadly shared, and the natural environment is preserved for future generations.

                                         

1. Introduction

Economic growth is one of the most fundamental indicators of a nation’s economic performance and development potential. It represents an increase in the quantity of goods and services produced in an economy over a period of time, typically measured as the percentage change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While the concept appears straightforward—producing more than before—economic growth is a complex phenomenon shaped by multiple factors, ranging from technological innovation to institutional quality.

Understanding economic growth is crucial because it influences living standards, employment opportunities, public finances, and a country’s geopolitical standing. However, growth is not automatically synonymous with well-being, and modern discussions increasingly focus on its quality, sustainability, and inclusiveness.

 

2. Definition of Economic Growth

Economic growth can be defined as “An increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of time to another, adjusted for inflation.”

Key points in this definition:

·       Capacity to produce: Growth can occur from more inputs (labor, capital, land) or better use of those inputs (productivity improvements).

·       Inflation adjustment: Measured in *real* terms to remove the effect of rising prices.

·       Time comparison: Measured over quarters or years.

 

3. Measurement of Economic Growth

3.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The most common measure, GDP calculates the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific period.

3.2 Real GDP vs. Nominal GDP

Nominal GDP: Measured at current market prices, not adjusted for inflation.

Real GDP: Adjusted for inflation, reflecting actual changes in output.

3.3.GDP per Capita

To assess average living standards, GDP is divided by population. A country may have high total GDP growth but stagnant GDP per capita if its population grows rapidly.

3.4 Alternative Indicators

·                Gross National Product (GNP) : Includes net income from abroad.

·     Human Development Index (HDI): Combines income, life expectancy, and education indicators.

·              Green GDP: Adjusts GDP for environmental costs and resource depletion.

 

4. Types of Economic Growth

4.1 Extensive Growth

Occurs when output increases due to adding more inputs—more workers, more machinery, or more natural resources. For example, a country might grow by employing more labor without improving productivity.

4.2 Intensive Growth

Driven by improvements in productivity—better technology, higher skills, and more efficient use of resources. Intensive growth is generally more sustainable because it is not limited by physical resource constraints.

4.3 Short-Run vs. Long-Run Growth

Short-run growth: Movement towards full capacity, often stimulated by increased demand.

Long-run growth: Expansion of the economy’s productive capacity over time through investment and innovation.

 

5. Theories of Economic Growth

5.1 Classical Growth Theory

Proposed by economists like Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Thomas Malthus, this theory emphasized capital accumulation, labor, and natural resources. Malthus predicted that population growth would outpace resource growth, leading to diminishing returns.

5.2 Neoclassical Growth Model (Solow-Swan Model)

Highlights capital accumulation, labor force growth, and technological progress. It predicts that economies converge to a steady-state growth rate determined by technology.

5.3 Endogenous Growth Theory

Emphasizes that technological progress and innovation are results of intentional investment in human capital, research, and knowledge. Growth can be sustained through policy and institutional support.

5.4 Schumpeterian Growth Theory

Focuses on innovation and “creative destruction,” where old industries are replaced by new, more productive ones.

 

6. Determinants of Economic Growth

6.1 Capital Accumulation

Investment in physical capital—machinery, infrastructure, factories—expands production capacity.

6.2 Human Capital

Education, training, and health improve labor productivity, enabling workers to produce more and better-quality goods and services.

6.3 Technology and Innovation

Advancements in processes, products, and organization drive productivity gains.

6.4 Natural Resources

Availability and efficient use of land, minerals, water, and energy influence output, though resource-rich countries are not always the fastest-growing (resource curse phenomenon).

6.5 Institutions and Governance

Rule of law, property rights, political stability, and transparent regulatory systems encourage investment and innovation.

6.6 Trade and Global Integration

Access to global markets facilitates specialization, technology transfer, and economies of scale.

6.7 Macroeconomic Stability

Low inflation, sustainable public debt, and sound fiscal/monetary policies create a predictable environment for growth.

 

7. Benefits of Economic Growth

·       Higher Living Standards: More goods and services per person increase material well-being.

·       Employment Opportunities: Expanding production requires more workers.

·  Public Revenue Expansion: Growth increases tax bases, enabling more spending on infrastructure and social services without raising tax rates.

·      Poverty Reduction: Sustained growth can lift millions out of poverty.

·     Technological Advancement: Growth encourages innovation and adoption of new technologies.

·  Global Competitiveness: Strong economies attract investment and exert greater influence internationally.

 

8. Costs and Limitations of Economic Growth

·     Environmental Degradation

Unchecked growth can lead to pollution, resource depletion, and biodiversity loss.

·     Inequality

Growth may disproportionately benefit certain groups, widening income gaps.

·     Overreliance on Certain Sectors

If growth depends too heavily on one industry (e.g., oil), it can be vulnerable to shocks.

·     Inflationary Pressures

Rapid growth without capacity expansion can lead to rising prices.

8.5 Short-Term vs. Long-Term Trade-Offs

Pursuing growth at the expense of sustainability can undermine future prosperity.

9. Sustainable and Inclusive Growth

Modern economic thinking stresses that growth should be:

Sustainable: Environmentally responsible and resource-efficient.

Inclusive: Broad-based, benefiting all segments of society.

Resilient: Capable of withstanding shocks like pandemics or financial crises.

 

9. Role of Policy in Promoting Economic Growth

9.1 Fiscal Policy

Public Investment:  Infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

Tax Incentives:  Encouraging private investment and innovation.

9.2 Monetary Policy

Maintaining low, stable inflation.

Ensuring adequate credit availability.

9.3 Trade Policy

Promoting exports and reducing unnecessary trade barriers.

Encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI).

9.4 Industrial Policy

Supporting strategic sectors with potential for high growth.

Promoting research and development (R\&D).

9.5 Institutional Reforms

Strengthening property rights and legal frameworks.

Reducing bureaucratic red tape.

 

10. Measuring Quality of Growth

GDP growth alone may not reflect well-being. Economists use complementary indicators:

·       Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI): Adjusts GDP for social and environmental factors.

·   Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI): Considers deprivations in health, education, and living standards.

·       Environmental Performance Index (EPI): Measures ecological sustainability.

 

11. Challenges to Future Economic Growth

·                 Climate Change

                      Extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and resource stress can disrupt

                     production.

·                 Technological Disruption

                      Automation and artificial intelligence may displace workers, requiring adaptation

                      through reskilling.

·                 Demographic Shifts

                      Aging populations in advanced economies and rapid population growth in

                     developing economies present different challenges.

·                 Geopolitical Tensions

                     Trade wars, conflicts, and political instability can disrupt global supply chains.

 

12. Conclusion

Economic growth is a vital component of national development, driving improvements in living standards, employment, and public services. However, it is not an end in itself. The ultimate goal should be sustainable, inclusive, and equitable growth—where the benefits are broadly shared, and the natural environment is preserved for future generations.

Policymakers must balance the pursuit of higher output with considerations of distribution, environmental sustainability, and long-term resilience. History shows that growth is not automatic; it requires sound policies, strong institutions, and adaptability to changing circumstances. When these conditions are met, economic growth becomes a powerful engine for human progress.

 

 


Share:

Recent Posts