Economic trend in 2025 – Global and Sri Lanka ~ Deveconomics

In 2025, the world economic growth rate will fall to 2.3 percent from 2.8 percent in 2024 by 0.5 percent. Sri Lanka’s economic growth will slow down by 1.5 percent from 5 percent in 2024 to 3.5 percent in 2025. However, WBG Commodity Price Index will reduce from 10.9 in 2025 while other price indexes also show a continuous declining in 2025. This indicates that the global inflationary pressure will further fall in 2025.

Global Economic Trend in 2025

The estimated global economic growth rate in 2024 was 2.8 percent and World Bank Group forecasts that the global economic growth will reduce in 2025 to 2.3 percent. This growth reduction will spread over advanced economies and Emerging Market and Developing Economies. The growth rate of Advanced Economies will reduce from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 1.2 percent in 2025. It is expected a 1.4 percent growth reduction in United State of America from 2.8 Percent in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025. Growth rate in Euro Area will also reduce by 0.2 percent. In contrary to that, 0.5 percent economic growth is expected in Japan in 2025 to 0.7 percent from 0.2 percent in 2024.

Economic growth in emerging market and developing economies will reduce by 0.4 percent from 4.2 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025. Under the emerging market and developing economies, growth reduction is expected for the East Asia and Pacific (-0.5 percent), Europe and Central Asia (-1.2 percent) and South Asia (-0.2 percent), while increase in economic growth is expected in 2025 for the Middle East and North Africa (0.8 percent), Sub-Sharan Africa (0.2 percent).

Table 1: Comparison of economic growth rates (202 estimated and 2025 forecasted)

(Source: World Bank Group, 2025)

In the Est Asia and Pacific Region, 0.5 percent growth reduction in China (from 5 percent in 2025 to 4.5 percent in 2025) and 0.3 percent growth reduction in Indonesia (from 5 percent in 2024 to 4.7 percent in 2025) are expected while 2.3 percent economic growth is forecasted in 2025 for Thailand (from 2.5 percent in 2024 to 4.8 percent in 2025). It is expected a 2.9 percent growth reduction for Russian Federation in 2025 from 4.3 percent in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025.

From 2024 to 2025, a growth stagnation is expected for the Latin American and Caribbean Region. A 7.4 percent hike in the economic growth is expected for the Argentina from 1.8 percent in 2024 to 5.5 percent in 2025. However, in the same region, economic growth in Brazil and Mexico will decline by 1 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. The economic growth in Iran Islamic Republic will decline by 3.5 percent from 3.0 percent in 2024 to -0.5 percent in 2025.

South Asia and Sri Lanka

In South Asia, reduction in growth rate is expected for Afghanistan (-0.3 percent), Bangladesh (-0.9 percent), and India (-1.2 percent). Increase in growth rate is forecasted for Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives and Pakistan.

Sri Lanka’s economic growth rate will decline by 1.5 percent from 5.0 percent in 2024 to 3.5 percent in 2025. Following chart 1compares the growth rate of South Asian Countries in 2024 and 2025.

Chart 1: comparison of economic growth rate in South Asian Countries (2024 estimated and 2025 forecasted)