Review of Global Cannabis Market

 

Although consequences are there, Cannabis is useful wider range of recreational, personal care, medical and industrial purposes. Estimated global market size of the industry was US$ 34.0 billion in 2024, and it was predicted that global legal Cannabis market will increase up to US$ 134.4 billion in 2030. Further, it is expected that the global Cannabis market will grow at CAGR of 25.5 percent from 2023 to 2030.

Compression of price is a visible character of the industry. From 2021 to 2023, the average THC index in Canadian market has declined by 21 percent. Increase in supply and slow growth of demand due to medical and social reasons are the main causes for price contraction. High policy uncertainty and regulatory gaps may also affect the growth of the industry.

 

1. Introduction

Three main types of Cannabis varies has been identified such as Cannabis sativa, Cannabis indica, and Cannabis ruderalis. Cannabis plant uses for wide range of purposes including medical, recreational, personal care and industrial purposes.  In medicine, Cannabis products are used for various medical purposes including treatment for chronic pain, alcoholism and drug addiction, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, and social anxiety, cancer, multiple sclerosis, epilepsy (Rush, 2025). However, Cannabis has various medical risks also. Although hundreds of bioactive molecules are available in Cannabis plant, Delta-9-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and Cannabidiol (CBD) are main active constituents that are used for medical purposes (The University of Sydney).

 

2. Industry trend

The legal cannabis industry has grown from a niche, reform-driven experiment into a multi-billion-dollar global market spanning medical, adult-use (recreational), wellness/CBD, and industrial hemp. Gains have been propelled by law changes, shifting public attitudes, and product innovation; yet the sector also faces sharp price compression, fragmented regulations, and capital constraints. Recent developments—Germany’s landmark legalization steps in 2024, Thailand’s 2025 move to re-criminalize recreational use, and deliberation in U.S.A.—show how fast the policy ground can move.

Grand View Research, 2025 mentioned that the global market size of the industry was US$ 27.4 billion in 2022 and US$ 34.0 billion in 2024. Further, it was predicted that global legal Cannabis market will increase up to US$ 134.4 billion in 2030. As mentioned in the above web site, the Global Cannabis Market will grow at a CAGR of 25.5% during the period 2023-2030.

3. Industry structure

Across these layers, business models vary by legal channel (medical vs. adult-use), product type (flower, oils, edibles, beverages, topicals, pharmaceuticals), and go-to-market (vertically integrated vs. specialized). Industrial hemp sits partly outside the psychoactive discussion, feeding into textiles, construction materials, foods, and wellness inputs.

 

4) Trend in key markets

North America

Canada remains the world’s most mature national adult-use market. In the United States, the federal government is weighing a rescheduling of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act—an administrative step that wouldn’t legalize adult use nationwide, but would meaningfully reshape tax, research, and financing conditions , while leaving interstate commerce constrained unless Congress acts.

 

Europe

Germany’s Cannabis Act (in force April 1, 2024) decriminalized possession for adults, allowed limited home-grow, and created pathways for non-commercial “cannabis clubs,” with a separate pilot phase for regional commercial supply. This is Europe’s most consequential shift and is expected to catalyze reforms elsewhere, even as domestic debates continue about enforcement and health safeguards.

 

Asia-Pacific 

Thailand, which decriminalized in 2022, is reversing course: in mid-2025 the government moved to re-criminalize recreational use and curb the booming retail scene, shaking an industry valued around a billion dollars. Elsewhere in the region, medical channels (e.g., Australia) continue to develop under tighter controls.

 

Latin America & Africa

Countries including Colombia, Uruguay, Mexico, Lesotho, and South Africa are pursuing medical cultivation/export or incremental domestic reforms, often eyeing job creation and exports.

5) Demand, Supply and Price trend

(Data Source: Canadian Cannabis Exchange)

It was observed that average THC Index and all other indices except index 1 have gone down from 2021 to 2023 in the Canadian market. Following table shows the representative Tetrahydrocannabinol level in each THC index and average price change from 2021 to 2023.

Table 1:THC Indices, respective Tetrahydrocanabinol % and price change

(2021-2023)

Tetrahydrocanabinol ( %)	THC Index	Price Change %
30%+	6	-13%*
25-30%	5	-35%
20 - 25%	4	-32%
15 - 20%	3	-18%
10 - 15%	2	-21%
0 - 10%	1	68%
Average	Average	-21%

 

   (Data Source: Canadian Cannabis Exchange)

*Considered only price change from 2022 to 2023 because unavailability of data for 2021.

As cultivation capacity scaled faster than retail access and consumer growth, wholesale and retail prices fell. This dynamic squeezed margins and forced consolidation or exits. Analysts note that the combined market value of major North American public operators fell dramatically from the 2021 peak, reflecting slower revenue growth, regulatory uncertainty, and ongoing oversupply. 

6) Policy risks

This a very socially sensitive industry and policy shifts may happen quickly. Thailand’s U-turn shows how quickly policy winds can change. Macroeconomic shock may also severely effect on this industry. If taxes are high and enforcement uneven, many consumers stay unlicensed. Operators and regulators must co-opt illicit demand with quality, safety, and convenience. Product safety incidents (e.g., contaminants) or youth-use concerns can spur restrictive rules—marketing curbs, potency caps, flavor bans.

7) Country level strategic models

Country level policies and strategies are different from country to country. Germany’s three stage model show a path for decriminalization & home/community cultivation in first stage and regional commercial pilot projects that will study the supply chain under controlled conditions in second stage before any national rollout. For companies, this means: near-term opportunities in clubs and medical, medium-term prospects in pilot regions (with strict compliance and research partnerships), and longer-term optionality should pilots justify broader commercialization. Domestic debate continues (e.g., road-safety thresholds, youth protection). It will be a good strategic model which take actions step by stem examine the development, consequences and behaviors of agents.

 

A diagram: Germany’s staged approach

8) Conclusion

Although consequence are there, Cannabis is useful wider range of recreational, personal care, medical and industrial purposes. Estimated global market size of the industry was US$ 34.0 billion in 2024, and it was predicted that global legal Cannabis market will increase up to US$ 134.4 billion in 2030. Further, it is expected that the global Cannabis market will grow at CAGR of 25.5 percent from 2023 to 2030.

Compression of price is a visible character of the industry. From 2021 to 2023, the average THC index in Canadian market has declined by 21 percent. Increase in supply and slow growth of demand due to medical and social reasons are the main causes for price contraction. High policy uncertainty and regulatory gaps may also affect the growth of the industry.