Key facts
§ Export growth in Sri
Lanka has been volatile and shows a downward trend,
despite occasional peaks (e.g., 24% in 2020–2021).
§
In Sri Lanka, exports
accounted for 13%
of GDP in 2024.
§
From 2010
to 2024, Sri Lanka’s exports grew only 49%,
compared to 119%
growth in South Asia and 370% in Vietnam.
§
In the first
half of 2025, exports reached USD 8.3
billion, rising to USD 9.99 billion by July.
§ Exports earning of USD
16.6 billion can be projected for 2025 with a 30%
growth rate.
1.Introduction
Exports
play a vital role in a country's economic growth and development, contributing
to technological advancement, foreign exchange earnings, and job creation.
However, expanding exports has become increasingly challenging in the modern
global economy due to various factors. These include technological innovation,
capital flows, international trade relations, trade barriers, rising quality
standards, differences in productivity, and the availability of labor—all of
which contribute to significant disparities between countries.
In
terms of economic indicators, exports accounted for 13% of GDP in 2024. Between
2018 and 2024, this figure generally fluctuated between 12% and 14%, with the
exception of 2022, when exports peaked at 17% of GDP.
2.
Export performance
Chart
1: Export performance from 2010 to 2024.
The country’s export performance has shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, the value of exports stood at USD 8.6 billion, rising to USD 12.8 billion by 2024—an increase of only 49% over the 14-year period. In contrast, according to World Bank Group data, total exports from South Asia grew by 119% during the same timeframe.
Country-level comparisons further
highlight the underperformance: between 2010 and 2024, exports from Bangladesh
grew by 155%, India by 121%, and Nepal by 113%. Notably, Vietnam recorded a
remarkable 370% increase in exports, from USD 80 billion in 2010 to USD 375 billion
in 2024.
However, there is a positive sign
in early 2025, with export earnings reaching USD 9,992.53 million within the
first seven months.
Chart
2 : Quarterly change of export values from 2022 to 2024.
Chart 2 illustrates the quarterly movement of exports in Sri Lanka. The data shows relatively stable export values across all four quarters, with no significant fluctuations. On average, for the period from 2022 to 2024, the quarterly contributions to annual export earnings are fairly balanced: 25% in the first quarter, 24% in the second, 26% in the third, and 25% in the fourth quarter.
Chart 3 presents the monthly export
earnings and their average trends between 2022 and 2024.
The chart
reveals noticeable month-to-month variations in export performance. Typically,
the lowest export earnings are recorded in April, while August sees the highest
figures. Export values tend to be relatively lower from September to May, with
a noticeable increase during the May to July period.
When considering the quarterly
averages over the three-year period, exports demonstrate a near-even
distribution throughout the year, further confirming the findings shown in
Chart 2.
Chart
3 : Movement of monthly exports from 2022 to 2024.
Chart 4 illustrates the
annual export growth rates of Sri Lanka from 2011 to 2024.
The data reveals significant volatility in export growth during this period.
Furthermore, a clear downward trend is evident, indicating a gradual decline in
export growth over time.
Chart
4 : Movement of monthly exports from 2022 to 2024.
3.
Composition of exports
In 2024, around 86% of Sri Lanka’s exports came from five major categories: Garments and Textiles, Other Industrial Products, Tea, Rubber Products, and Petroleum Products. Chart 6 illustrates the sectoral contributions to total exports, while the following table compares export performance between 2023 and 2024. In addition to that, table 1 and 2 compares the change in industrial and agricultural exports from 2023 to 2024, respectively.
Chart
5 : Composition of exports in 2024.
4.
Export prediction for 2025
According
to the Sri Lanka Export Development Board, the total value of merchandise and
service exports reached USD 8,338 million during the first half of 2025. By the
end of July 2025, this figure had further increased to USD 9,992 million. Over
the past 15 years, the highest annual export growth rate was 24%, recorded
between 2020 and 2021, despite the global market not having fully recovered
from the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first half of 2025 alone, export earnings
amounted to USD 8,338 million, and historical patterns suggest that the second
half could generate even higher revenues. Based on current trends and past
performance, total exports in 2025 are projected to reach approximately USD
16.6 billion, reflecting a 30% growth compared to 2024.
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